A Cold November Reign

On the eve of the 2006 Congressional elections, George W. Bush is patiently waiting for the results so that he can strategize for his own re-election campaign.

Seriously, no other part of the constitution seems to apply to his administration, so why should he worry about the 22nd amendment.

On Tuesday, the world may in fact change. I am not going to say "the Democrats are going to win," because I know better. There are just far too many variables that are beyond the polls. I do want to put a few things on the record before a whack of talking heads steal my ideas over time and space.

The problem with polls. In America, voter turnout has been on the decline steadily since the 1960s. It is particularly poor in the "off years" where there is no ballot being cast for President. I would guess that voter turnout will be about 40%, and we all know that the people who traditionally cast votes are older, more affluent, and white. I think anyone can answer the phone and say they are voting Democrat, but that doesn't make it so. That said, this election is also being cast by Democrats as a referendum on the President so maybe the turnout will be higher.

The Myth of Incumbency. It has been said that incumbency re-election for the United States Congress is upwards of 98 percent. While this is technically true, what they don't tell you is that the people who aren't going to win again don't run again. Of the 39 seats that are withing the margin during this election, 20 of them are without incumbents.

Nobody wants to win. The Democrats don't want to win control of the House, because doing so makes them govern. They would rather wait until 2008 and take both the House and the White House. If they do win, they have to actually do something rather then complain about how bad this administration is. Conversely, the Republicans need a new target- and an inexperienced Speaker is the best target, second only to an investigative Congress that wastes time going over what has already happened to get it on the record before 2008 rather than introducing new ideas. Oh, the power of subpoena - it is an addiction. Republicans will quickly blame democrats for not getting anything done, and it will work the exact same way it has for the past 85 years.

Clinton doesn't want Pelosi as speaker. Nancy Pelosi (D - California) is a place card holder and she certainly isn't Tip O'Neill. She won the job of Minority House leader when nobody else wanted it. If the Democrats take control of the House, Nancy Pelosi will be the speaker, and to that end, the first woman elected to any constitutionally recognized role in the US Government. This was supposed to be Hillary Clinton's (D - Chicago, Washington, Little Rock, and NYC) great legacy. More importantly, Pelosi is a successful female politician who has done so despite sounding really, well, bitchy. There is a real concern that having her in the spotlight for the next two years will adversely affect Hillary's prospect for success because the U.S. public doesn't like to be scolded. Sexist, maybe, but Trent Lott (R - Cracker) is the first Senator from Mississippi.

None of this is to say that a Democratic controlled congress is a bad thing. Anything to put some oars in the water to stop the insanity. This is to say that even the most ardent Democrats are getting sick of the partisan nature of Congressional politics. Hopefully the class of 2006 will do better.