The Blair Switch Project

I watched the second icon of modern day liberalism give his farewell speech to the Labour Party this morning, and I have to admit, I am going to miss him.

In 1997, Tony Blair (L - Clinton East) defeated John Major (C- That is what you get for betraying Maggie) to become the Youngest British Prime Minister since 1812. They have governed comfortably, without external opposition, ever since.

Tell me if this sounds familiar - A personally popular PM with a huge majority governs through three consecutive elections where the biggest source of his opposition is found within his own party. That opposition is rooted underneath an economic Minister who implements the plan developed in partnership with the PM and as a result, becomes personally popular. When the PM feels slight drops in personal popularity that are always associated with the beast that is government, the knives come out from the supporters of this Minister until finally the embattled PM steps down. It is also important to note that the Minister and PM come from the same part of the country, but the PM is no longer popular there.

The legislature is traditionally populated by three different political parties: the Governing Labour Party, traditional Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. All the while, two key regional parties emerge taking key votes away from the national parties. While they win a few seats, they allow the governing party to come up the middle in many others. Ok- so maybe that is an alternate reality, its still crazy, eh?

There are three key differences: (1) Gordon Brown didn't actually stand for leadership against Tony Blair (there are reports of a secret deal between he and Blair- I am sure it will be written about in the book); (2) The Chancellor of the Exchequer is also the Treasury Board President equivalent (ergo, they have a lot more to do) and (3) Without Tony Blair, Gordon Brown would probably have been in opposition for the last ten years. I don't think the same could be said about Paul Martin (L - Entitlement), but revisionism is always 80/20.

There are also two key similarities: (1) After ten years, it is often just "time for a change" and (2) As of right now, Tony Blair is leaving with his middle fingers safely stowed away in his pockets, knowing that the greatest legacy he could ever hope for is "a fourth consecutive Labour majority."

I am not so naive as to think that connections and similarities can't be drawn between any two regimes over space and time. That said, British elections haven't produce a minority Parliament in 32 years. If all goes to plan, I think it is quite possible that there will be a third similarity very soon.