Que? Beck and Call

I heard an awesome rumour on Friday. Let me state uncategorically that I don't believe it. There are, however, lots of reasons to believe that it is true, which I will detail below.

Let me also state uncategorically that I am not the person who started it. The last time I started a rumour like this it got picked up nationally- and Peter MacKay is probably regretting his decision to remain in federal politics.

Ok- here goes. According to a trusted source who has worked with Premier Charest for the past 17 years, the Premier is planning on leaving provincial politics to become the Deputy-Prime Minister and Minister of the Environment by February of 2007. The negotiations are ongoing, and the only thing that is standing in the way is the ability of the Quebec Liberals to replace him by May of 2007. Senior Quebec Party brass are aware, and the membership campaigns are starting.

At the outset, let me tell you why it doesn't make sense- it is a demotion, Charest hates Harper-cons, and quite frankly, Charest fought for so long and hard to avoid the Conserv-amalgamation, returning with his tail between his legs and signing up to be its Quebec gauche-tennant just doesn't sit right with anyone. In fact, some people were somewhat surprised that Charest didn't run for the federal Liberal Leadership.

Now, here is why it makes sense. First, there is a lot of worry that Charest will not be able to win the next provincial election. Even though Mr. Boisclair is such a tool that Lucien Bouchard (L, PC, BQ, PQ - Los Angeles) is considering running for the ADQ (I didn't make that up either) there is a suggestion in the province that Charest is overly committed to federalism and isn't standing up to the PM like his federalist predecessors. If you can't beat 'em, join em.

Factor in the Quebec Election which was slated for November 13th, and the fact that the brakes were slammed on unceremoniously last week, and suddenly the mediocre poll numbers (which aren't really that mediocre electorally) aren't the only reason. Everyone with half a wit in Quebec knows that Charest would in all likelihood win again because in the ridings where the Liberals are most vulnerable, the vote will go to the ADQ, not the PQ, because Boisclair is such a tool. Like I said before, the only person who benefited from the election of Andre Boisclair was Mario Dumont, former president of the Quebec Young Liberals, and twice rumored to run federally- first for the Canadian Alliance and then in 2004 for the Conservative Party. Quebec politics is a sick incestuous place.

Second- Charest hates being the Premier, and only took the reigns because the alternative was an unchecked Lucien Bouchard. In other words, he had to. When Bouchard just quit out of the blue, and was replaced by the un-charismatic Bernard Landry, Charest accidentally became Premier. Now, he sees himself as the Quebec Bob Rae- doing the correct things for a province in quasi-labour turmoil when he doesn't have a lot of options. His creativity has saved jobs and the "outer" economy, but the major unions are still really upset with him. AND He is taking it personally.

Third- Harper needs him in Quebec. What makes Charest unpopular as a Premier will re-catapult from the forefront of national politics in Quebec to the forefront of federal politics in Quebec, while understanding that national politics in Quebec is not the same as national politics in Canada. Harper continues to think he can reason with les Quebecois, and it just isn't on. His key policy areas (Khandahar and Kyoto) are DOA in Quebec. Personality, however, sells tickets. Charest can overcome that barrier no questions asked.

Charest's power outside of the province might even deliver a few more seats out East and in Ontario.

Fourth- Charest, as a comparatively young man, has a future in national politics. As I said above, he didn't want to be a provincial leader anyway. Harper won't be around forever, and who better to step into that mantle than someone who is often identified as the "Man who saved Canada" in 1995. Problem is, he would probably split the right.