Green Plan Three - Save the eNvy-DP

Without any fanfare, and without any coverage, the NDP announced how it would propose to amend the Clean Air Act at committee stage to make it "acceptable."

Amendment is not the correct description of the NDP proposal. The correct description is complete overhaul. It changes everything, right down to the title.

The NDP has to know that their proposals will not be accepted by anyone, let alone the government- but pundits have been baffled of late by the ENVY-DP.

There is no surprise to me. In early October I saw a poll of 4,900 Ontarians (big sample, I know) that intimately detailed the voting patterns of them. 72 percent of Ontarians were split almost down the line on Liberal v. Tory- Same old story. 13 percent were undecided. 15 percent, were split between the Greens and the NDP, with the NDP at around 9. This is a significant step down from their election result but not surprising given the increased profile of the Greens in the past couple months.

The poll also asked "would you be willing to switch your vote to the Green Party?" Of the 30% who said yes, all nine percent of the NDP's primary supporters said they would consider the switch. It will come as no surprise given recent media coverage that many of the rest were from the Liberals, but that doesn't affect them nearly as much as the NDP who would theoretically be able to draw from the Liberals. It would appear soft Liberal support is now going to skip a level, so to speak.

Throw Bob Rae (L - OC, OO, LLD) into that little puzzle, and one wonders if the NDP will ever get another vote in Ontario. Say what you will about Bingo Bob, but for every vote the Liberals have already lost to the Tories in 2006, they would probably pick up as many from the NDP if he won. I am skeptical that the Liberals would lose a single vote because of his former Premiership because, to be blunt, they have already lost some of the most "Liberal" ridings in the province (Orleans, Prescott, Parkdale) and I don't know how their vote count could possilby go down.

Regardless, don't be surprised if Jack Layton has his entire caucus riding their bike to work this week.

Turn now to the November 27th By-election in London where Diane Haskett (C-Adam and Eve not Saddam and Satan) is expected to win fairly easily. Personally, I think that Elizabeth May has done herself a huge disservice by running in this by-election knowing that she doesn't have a chance because in London North Centre, the Environment is not as important as manufacturing competitiveness. In fact, the two issues are often perceived to be at odds.

Mr. Layton, however, is doing his best to squeeze her out. Unlike Ms. May, he has a formal question in QP every day and he has used 83% of them since Parliament resumed in September to question the government on Environmental issues. He is trying to out green her, and he is doing it to remain relevant. There isn't room for another third party in Canadian politics right now and few of the wackoes on the fringes are interested in the NDP anymore.