JOBA nailed for DUI

Sadly, many of the articles about his DUI mention his aboriginal heritage.

Why on earth is that relevant?

Harper's Senate "Problem"

So, Steve thinks that the Senate will stop his legislative agenda.

But, he doesn't want to break to principle because he believes in reform.

How does he accomplish both?

By appointing twenty 73 year olds to the Senate.

They HAVE to resign in two years. They can pave the way to change in the Senate. They can represent communities that aren't currently represented.

And it is not like Harper wouldn't be able to find 73 year olds who would support him.

Things you give up in college

I feel sorry for Stephane Dion- not because he isn't making the right decision - but because I believe the key thing that led to his demise was racism/linguism in the province of Ontario.

That said, when I look closer at the demographics of the vote, I conclude two very interesting things:

1) Over 308 ridings, Conservative vote totals didn't really increase by all that much; and
2) People who voted NDP and Green this time can't make the same mistake again.

I remember when I was in college - we used to love going to Smith college in the United states. They held a debating tournament every year, and every year even the ugliest guy on the debate team would get laid.

Why? Because Smith is an all girls school in the middle of nowhere.

According to the New York Times, one in TWO girls who attend Smith 'admit' to participating in at least one act of lesbianism during their time at Smith. Does that make them gay? God no. The same article went on to say that these girls leave Smith, find loving husbands and move on with their lives. I wouldn't call it a phase, but it is certainly limited to a certain time/space.

The point is that when they are surrounded with few options, they choose what is available.

I think this is why young people vote for the Greens and the NDP. It is a phase. They are inundated with it on Campus, and it seems fun to do at the time.

Musings about the Election

Ok- I have had a day to recover.

There are good and bad things to talk about. Bad things first.

I think there is a straight line correlation to be made between the Liberal loses and voter turnout. I was half kidding about traffic this morning, but when you dig a little deeper this was the election that had the poorest voter turnout in modern history. The previous election was not much better - prior to that, also below the average since the war.

Each time the Liberals lost more seats.

I look at voter turnout through a different prism than most. I see "apathy" as contentment with the status quo. People vote for change, and stay at home for more of the same. I honestly believe that efficacy and trust are highest in societies that have depressed voter turnout.

Is there a magic bullet? Well, first of all, our "voter participation" rate is artificially inflated, particularly amongst young people. Many people under 30 appear on the register of electors four or five times. That is because they move a lot. The list is dreadfully out of date. Overhaul is required.

I don't think that the electoral system is in need of radical change - except I would like to see our PM elected separate and apart from our MP. That way, people who don't think their MP of choice will win, get to vote for both an MP and their first choice for Prime Minister. I think May would have gotten a lot more votes under that system - and I honestly believe she deserved more. I also think Jack would have gotten more votes. In fact, I think EVERYONE would have gotten more votes, except Gilles Duceppe - who could still have his rump from Quebec in the legislature.

Now the good news -

I think that the NDP success is going to fundamentally change the NDP. I can assure you that their new MPs from Northern Ontario are going to change the tone at caucus. Certainly not the defenders of left issues, we may see them stick to the "kitchen table" campaign referred to in the campaign. Jobs first. Remembering that the traditional NDP was not socially liberal, but developed from Christian values of community under Douglas. The NDP member from St. John will also change the tone of the conversation for sure. He knows what is bubbling off the coast- and let me assure you, it causes climate change.

I think that this Ministry is going to be significantly different. There are going to be at least three -if not as many as six- more women. I suspect there is going to be an official C.O.O. as opposed to a defacto one. There is (at least potentially) more "experience" at this Cabinet table than ever before. Let's hope the PM uses it.

Loathe as I am to admit it, the new blood from Ontario will improve the Conservative Caucus and presumably, government policy towards manufacturing. Yes, I would have preferred to see Karen Redman re-elected. same story with Sue Barnes. Garth Turner, you can keep.

From now on, Wednesday mornings will have a decidedly different tone for the Tories. For reference purposes, there are now more MPs from Ontario than the three prairie provinces combined. Ontario and Quebec outweigh the entire Western Caucus. The last time that happened, the right split in half, remember?

Last but not least, I am thrilled that Nunavut elected a Conservative. Nothing against the Liberal- I don't know him - but there has been an un-intelligible stigma about Aboriginal voters and their unwillingness to vote Tory for some time. To be fair, the PM has spent more time up North than Santa Claus in the past two years, so maybe that had something to do with it. Yes, I would have preferred to have a liberal elected, but I think this is important for ending what has been perceived as "ghetto" politics for some time. Lord knows this is an issue that needs desperate attention. I bet she will make Steve hear it.

Finally - and this really isn't about the results of the election, but the return of Parliament - there were about 200 HORRIBLE private members bills that are now off the agenda. This Parliament makes it unlikely stupid bills like Pablo's Kyoto bill get passed.

The Commuter Commute

This election was about people who were stuck in traffic.

All the Tory gains in Ontario. People stuck in traffic.

Federal Election Today

And I don't really care. Here is what I am hoping for:

1) I want another Minority Parliament. They are good for business.

2) I want voter turnout to be REALLY low. Then maybe we can have a serious conversation about "Never-endum."

3) I want my local Liberal candidate to win. I like her. I don't think she has a chance in Hell.

4) I desperately want the bloq to be under 40 seats. It is about money. Frankly, I quite like Gilles.

5) I desperately want to understand why people (who have the right to vote) think that the current state of the economy has ANYTHING to do with federal policy, and further, I want to know why they they Messrs Dion or Layton would be better at dealing with issues that affect us from abroad.

6) I really want Lloyd St. Amand to win. He is a nice guy.

7) I really want the Tories to win a seat in Newfoundland. While I am not a big Fabian Manning fan, he is the best bet - I love Danny Williams to bits, but for Christ's sake he needs to shut up from time to time.

8) I really want at least one Cabinet Minister to lose and get appointed to the Senate, or Ambassador, or to some other quasi-important job that completely undermines the Reform-party wing of the Tories raison d'etre. Fortier and Emerson were great examples from the last time- I wonder what they will be this time?

9) I really want Mike Duffy to retire. I find him to be a useless freckle on the teet of journalism, and anything but an unbiased raconteur of events. He is almost as biased as...

10) I really want to see the CBC take one on the chin for something. Their coverage of this election has been HORRIBLE and unfair. I love it, don't get me wrong, but I hate it when people try to make the news rather than report it. If you wanted to make the news, you shouldn't have gone to J-school.


In an unrelated story, I really like rural Quebec- they are very libertarian out there. So libertarian, they are trying to leave Canada. Who knew?

Back to Baseball

So, what is the biggest story of the year?

MANRAM v. Boston final? That would be awesome for soooo many reasons.

The better story, however, would be Joe Torre in Fenway, in a world series, while the Yankees - who passed on him - are watching all of the good free agents think about why they want to be in LA.

Chicago v. Chicago: not so much anymore.

The Rays- sorry boys, but in case you didn't notice, run production in October slows down - which is why teams that average 6-8 runs in the regular season don't do as well in October. Teams like the Sox who win by 2-3 runs all the time, do. Shocking.

Pitching is always what wins in October, Mr. October notwithstanding.

Another Minority government - Too bad Harper's last name doesn't rhyme with Jean

If Steve doesn't win his majority, it should lead swiftly to PM Stephane Dion. Let me explain.

Let's say the Tories win 140ish seats, and the libs win about 80, and the NDP win about 30 and the BQ win about 40 - with the extras scattered between the opposition parties.

The PM forms his second government, the third minority in a row. Depending on the math, the Liberals can bring the government down with the help of the other parties.

Steve begins 2009 with a 'mandate' and introduces a throne speech where he pledges to do all the stuff he has pledged to do. Nobody on the other side of the isle likes it. The BQ and NDP can't really vote for it given the vitriol of this campaign.

Dion is no dummy. Not winning isn't really an option for an embattled leader. Barely winning isn't exactly a shot of confidence.

Layton is also no dummy. This is not his first election as leader. People are starting to notice.

Duceppe has been a leader for longer than his opponents combined. His time is almost up. In fact, he tried to quit last Parliament.

So, which one of them is going to vote in favour of an agenda they have been so virulently against for so long?

Enter Michaelle Jean (I don't know how to make the little mark over the vowels in her name). She has been in charge for very little time. But this will be the third Parliament she has presided over.

I am not sure how she could possibly dissolve Parliament for a third time in such a short span. The only fitting convention is that she would have to ask Dion to at least try to form a government. He would need some help.

Its not a constitutional crisis persae, but the Reform elements of the Conservatives would lose their minds - how dare an un-elected CBC hack deny them their god-given-electorate ratified right to govern? The convention, since the 1930s, is that the GG should mind his/her own business.

Except, there hasn't been a need since 1930. Minority governments led to elections where they either led to majorities or to a new government. Or, in some cases, both.

It isn't pretty - but I think it is very likely if Steve doesn't win a majority.

Stephane Dion's government will be attacked from every possible side - and at least theoretically - the Tories will fire back at them to defeat them just as quickly. The left coalition will not last long, and the Tories will have another bullet in their gun on 'institutional' reform.

The winner? Those seeking Mr. Dion's crown of course.

And it isn't like there is any downside for Dion. If the status quo persists, his leadership will be under fire. Its not like he isn't already under fire. If he does get to form a government employing the King/Bing methodology he gets his name in the history books and a chance to speak from a higher soapbox. If that doesn't work, his time as leader is definitely done.

I am Debate

So, I watched the French Language debate last night. And there were two winners

1) Stephane Dion - he gave himself a much needed shot in the arm.

2) Gilles Duceppe - looked like the St. Lucien for Quebec.

Of the participants, the thing I don't understand is why the kid gloves were attached to May - it was nice for her to utter a sentence or two, but really- she looked like the injured seal that the shark goes after.

In other interesting news, the Ex-Hells Angel turned ministerial consort had elements of her book released this week. Big whup.

Apparently, Mr. Bernier thought Stephen Harper was fat and a control freak.

Breaking news to everyone around here, no doubt.