Another Minority government - Too bad Harper's last name doesn't rhyme with Jean

If Steve doesn't win his majority, it should lead swiftly to PM Stephane Dion. Let me explain.

Let's say the Tories win 140ish seats, and the libs win about 80, and the NDP win about 30 and the BQ win about 40 - with the extras scattered between the opposition parties.

The PM forms his second government, the third minority in a row. Depending on the math, the Liberals can bring the government down with the help of the other parties.

Steve begins 2009 with a 'mandate' and introduces a throne speech where he pledges to do all the stuff he has pledged to do. Nobody on the other side of the isle likes it. The BQ and NDP can't really vote for it given the vitriol of this campaign.

Dion is no dummy. Not winning isn't really an option for an embattled leader. Barely winning isn't exactly a shot of confidence.

Layton is also no dummy. This is not his first election as leader. People are starting to notice.

Duceppe has been a leader for longer than his opponents combined. His time is almost up. In fact, he tried to quit last Parliament.

So, which one of them is going to vote in favour of an agenda they have been so virulently against for so long?

Enter Michaelle Jean (I don't know how to make the little mark over the vowels in her name). She has been in charge for very little time. But this will be the third Parliament she has presided over.

I am not sure how she could possibly dissolve Parliament for a third time in such a short span. The only fitting convention is that she would have to ask Dion to at least try to form a government. He would need some help.

Its not a constitutional crisis persae, but the Reform elements of the Conservatives would lose their minds - how dare an un-elected CBC hack deny them their god-given-electorate ratified right to govern? The convention, since the 1930s, is that the GG should mind his/her own business.

Except, there hasn't been a need since 1930. Minority governments led to elections where they either led to majorities or to a new government. Or, in some cases, both.

It isn't pretty - but I think it is very likely if Steve doesn't win a majority.

Stephane Dion's government will be attacked from every possible side - and at least theoretically - the Tories will fire back at them to defeat them just as quickly. The left coalition will not last long, and the Tories will have another bullet in their gun on 'institutional' reform.

The winner? Those seeking Mr. Dion's crown of course.

And it isn't like there is any downside for Dion. If the status quo persists, his leadership will be under fire. Its not like he isn't already under fire. If he does get to form a government employing the King/Bing methodology he gets his name in the history books and a chance to speak from a higher soapbox. If that doesn't work, his time as leader is definitely done.