Tonight's Election

I just don't believe any of it. I don't believe that voters will walk into a voting booth and say "oh, that Layton fellow seems lovely."

Of course, people do date strangers they meet on the internet...

There are four distinct thoughts, in descending order of likelihood – but all very possible – all have profound implications for our constitutional future.

1) Majority. Jack splits votes in 20-30 ridings he usually finishes fourth in. This helps the liberals in some ridings, but hugely benefits Tories North and East of Montreal, BC. They come in between 160-165 with 35% in most of those ridings. Harper majority introduces c-2 (the Attila the hun spending cuts) and c-3 (the crime and punishment) bills and they are law before June 13. This is how Jean Chretien won power three times. Get used to it.

Harper Majority changes the face of Canadian Politics as he Harris's his way to the government he wants - like 33 people with Apple I-tablets.

2) Minority with Michael Ignatieff (MI) as Leader of the Opposition. MI holds out and brings down government before December– no substantive issues are discussed because legitimacy is only issue on the table and the future of constitutional legitimacy at play. Tories win 260 seats in three years if they can sustain the message. I really and truly do not believe that many seats will sway to the NDP. They have 38 now - they MIGHT get to 60.

Changes the face of Canadian Politics as Harper will be forced to resign eventually. No doubt that the battle to replace him will be brutal.

3) Minority with JL as OLO. MI resigns and we have an excuse to allow PMSH stay around (knowing he will also be forced out within a year) as we select new leader. There is no way that Lib brand can allow PHJL picture in any building. Destroys Lbieral key argument for why it is better and why the NDP can't be trusted.


Same as above, but when Layton falters, Conservative Leader Maxime Bernier will win 60 seats in Quebec. And then I move to Georgia - and not the one in the US.

4) Majority of NDP/Lib or Lib/NDP WITHOUT the support of the BQ (ie – tories are down around 125 seats). Not unlikely if the NDP sneaks up to 75-80 seats. I can't imagine it really happening though.

The two parties would eventually have to engage in some kind of merger discussion. Entire government stand still until agreement sorted out. Will not happen overnight.