What the By-elections really mean

I don't have a lot of time- I will come back to this issue on the weekend- I promise.

The bottom line is that this election isn't nearly as bad for Stephane Dion as it was for Gilles Duceppe and the sovereignty movement in Quebec. Dion is in trouble too, but for very different reasons - with him, it is personal, not political.

As a result, expect there to be a Federal Election SOONER rather than later. Why sooner? Simple game theory.

The BQ knows that they are losing relevance. The longer they hold out, the more likely they are to be "Mulroneyed" out of relevance in Quebec. If there was an election today (or the second week of November) the BQ could probably still win 25-30 seats on name recognition, strong candidates, key issues and basic political organization. This would allow them to survive for four years of a razor thin Conservative Majority government.

They saw what happened to Boisclair (and blamed him) and they can see the writing on the wall. If Dumont brings down Charest in the next 12 months (very likely) the last thing the separatists want is to have the PQ trounced again before the BQ has the chance to rebuild and solidify the base.

The BQ are incredibly important to the continued relevance of the sovereignty movement for THREE reasons:

1) Money Money Money Money (those Elections Canada checks are worth twice their weight in gold);

2) There presence in Ottawa remains a very good training ground for leaders and PQ staffers (paid for by you and me); and

3) They talk about the issue - say what you want, but they have actually been a credible and effective opposition party. Their economics and econometrics (yes, that is right) aside, on most issues as it relates to Quebec's standing in the federation, their position is bang on.

The other thing is that a NATIONAL campaign is going to force the Conservatives to spread out their comparatively vast resources. Same for the still indebted Liberals. The BQ gets disproportionate value for their relatively small investment. They ignore the island, which they should, and it is literally pennies a glass to win their seats. Not to mention the fact that when they are fighting to keep their votes from a Kyoto hating, Kandahar invading Prime Minister, it is way easier than when they are fighting against one extremely popular local mayor.

And Gilles Duceppe is still, by a country mile, the best organizer in Quebec. Despite his flip flop, he remains personally popular. He will win a National campaign - or at least temporarily capture another plurality. Which is all they have to do to stay alive for four more years.