La Deception de Mr. Duceppe

I just got back from the Bloc Quebecois caucus retreat, where I may have once again been on the winning team at their annual golf tournament. The first time we won it, we were decried by Mr. Duceppe as federalists taking their spoils away to Ottawa like tax dollars. I don't know what he said this time, because we bolted to drive home right away.

Mr. Duceppe is a fantastically interesting person. He was the first person elected as a separatist to the House of Commons, though not under the BQ banner: the rules back then forced him to run as an independent in that by-election because the BQ was not an official party.

He may also be responsible for unwitttingly undoing the sovreignty movement for the foreseeable future.

When Mr. Landry stepped aside in 2005, there was a strong call for Mr. Duceppe to leave federal politics and take his place. The unions which Mr. Duceppe once ran called for his ascension to the position, but unlike Mr. Bouchard before him, Mr. Duceppe had other plans.

He was, and remains, the most popular politician in Quebec. He probably figured that if he stuck around until the next federal election, he could get to 63-65 seats and wipe the Liberals out of Quebec, except for the west end of Montreal and Gatineau. He probably figured that he could get the symbolic 50% plus one in the federal election. He probably figured he could be the Leader of the Opposition again, the ultimate of embarrassments for the Liberals. He politely declined, and promised his "appui" to whomever won the contest as a partner for sovreignty. Enter (from the rear or otherwise) Mr. Boisclair, the man-child from Harvard and saviour of the PQ. He won on the first ballot. Yay.

Mr. Duceppe's plans were screwed up by the seven most shocking election night victories in the country- Even *I* predicted three of them.

Almost a year later, Mr. Boisclair is, at best, a disappointment, and at worst, an embarrassment. It would appear that on November 13th, he will form another opposition and that many of the parties soft votes may flock to L'ADQ de Mr. Dumont. More about Dumont another day and my new theory about how work in Ottawa is like training for work in Quebec City. Regardless, what was once assuredly a PQ victory as a result of Mr. Charest's unprecedented unpopularity (he was less popular than George Bush in the province of Quebec) has evolved into a "well, the economy is booming, what is four more years anyway."

Suppose that Gilles did leave to become the leader of the PQ. We could assume that the Bloc wouldn't have won 51 seats nor would they have won 42% of the vote. Their soft support would probably have been split between the Tories and the Liberals. It is likely that the tories would pick up a few more seats in Quebec.

Emboldenned by a larger government, the Conservatives may not have been so eager to court Quebec in its first term. Or, they would have cuddled up to Charest anyway. Ultimately, they still would have had their two key problems in Quebec: Kyoto and Khandahar.

Now, imagine a whoppingly unpopular Mr. Charest having to deal with a seasoned opposition leader like Mr. Duceppe and his massive personal appeal, not to mention his ready-made and battle-tested electoral machine. I doubt Charest would have much of a chance.

With Premier Duceppe at the helm, it is unlikely that Ottawa/Quebec relations would be that great as the two aforementioned issues would be criticized from L'Assemblee Nationale. In a debate for sovreignty, Duceppe would be up against an anglo PM with no real love for Quebec's linguistic traditions, social values, or semantic debates. After four years of cautious Levesque-like government, Mr. Duceppe could rail against a neo-conservative Canada that has values so very different from the peace-loving, earth loving, gay marriage accepting, peuple du Quebec that its place in Canada is an affront to its own development as a nation, un peuple.

Oui, est ca deviens plus qu'un reve. Mr. Duceppe's mistake, if you want to call it that, is that he figured that the Martin Liberals would hold on. Another person who underestimated Prime Minister Harper. The list keeps growing.

Of course, if Duceppe had left to become Premier-to-be, Martin's Election strategy might have been "who is better to bribe Quebec into staying in Canada?" There is little doubt it would have been him.