Bali Would...

The last time Canada negotiated a treaty on the reduction of GHGs - the two instructions the negotiators and Minister of the Environment had were 1) Do better than the U.S. and 2) Don't sweat the details - stick to broad targets and principled change. It was an ambitious view for a Prime Minister (L - How I miss thee) who was trying to look like a world leader. The negotiation strategy was, literally, worked out on a cocktail napkin in first class on the way over to Japan. I have spoken to two different people who were on the plane who can confirm this.

As it turns out, the details excluded, amongst other things, Canadian trees from qualifying for clean air credits for absorbing carbon, and doing better than the United States set our targets phenomenally high. This is because the United States position was being negotiated by Al Gore (D - Not done yet) and the U.S made the same mistake Canada did- it forgot that all countries and economies are not the same.

Well, Mr. Gore's perfect little treaty (PLT) was resoundingly rejected by the Equal, Effective and Elected U.S. Senate. Its great when you tag your emissions targets to your greatest competitor for new investment only to have its parents say "it is time for you to come home!" What am I going to do with 6 kilo tonnes of girl guide cookies?

And then our economy grew by 34%, and our population added four million people. Do more with less, I always say.

This time around, we are far better prepared. Not because we have a Conservative instead of a Liberal - because we have had more than a decade talking about this issue to understand all of the things that makes Canada (and other northern countries) unique. The most important part of it is that where we live - its really cold and we do not benefit from "energy of scale" the same way a country like England does (that means our country is spread out.) It is bigger than Europe, after all.

There are a lot of Kyoto-phobes (myself included) that can pick apart the text of the agreement and say "that doesn't work in Canada" and there are a lot of Kyoto-philes who say "we have to make it work, damn the torpedoes." It doesn't matter anymore. Industry in Canada is mature enough to understand that energy efficiency is en vogue - and unless you make oil from sand, your emissions reductions are well underway.

I strongly advise our Environment Minister (C - God, I want a new job) to keep Bird-Hagel in mind as he listens to the U.S. position. Last time, the Canadian Minister was in the back seat to a U.S. Vice President who was in charge of the file but didn't have the constitutional authority to follow up his promises. This time, the positions are entirely reversed - the U.S. negotiator (whomever it is) will not do enough to satisfy Congress. Mr. Reid (D - Black 17) has said that the United States has to do more - whatever that means.

The Congress will likely reject whatever the administration ratifies because of the completely emasculated internal political position it is negotiating from. All the serious Democratic candidates will lambaste the U.S. position as soft on Big Oil. All the serious Republican candidates will distance themselves from the current administration and say they would do more. California will say that they are banning cars altogether.

All the while, Mr. Baird should sit back and wait to be the comfortable middle power. I am sure some clever international affairs student will note that Mr. Baird's legislature has already commanded him to meet Kyoto - and he will say - "Oh, that. HA. Don't worry - our legislature can't stop us like yours can stop you." And he would be right, because he launched a plan pursuant to KPIA - it just sucked. Slap his wrists.

The government's very measured, very mature, very practical position that everyone has to be involved in the way that is most reasonable for their economies and emission sources should resonate very loudly in Bali. He has to be wary of a U.S. negotiator who will have an ambitious position that the Congress has already decided to reject.

This time, the Government also has to be very honest about what this will cost. It has to tell YOU that the price of energy is going to go up even more (Canadians do enjoy extremely cheap energy by comparison, btw.) It has to tell YOU that goods are going to be more expensive. It has to tell YOU to put on a sweater.

America just has to flip the switch on Vegas - and it would meet every GHG target imaginable. Think about it - most of the wealth transfer comes from inside the U.S. anyway. And, when the next President is in charge (R - Huck-a-barkansas, R - Mitt-achusetts, R Law & Order or R 9-11) he will ask G-d to finish what she started in New Sodom in New Gomorrah. If you don't know what I am referring to - have some beads.

Mr. Baird also has to remember that our trees absorb carbon and that a resource based economy will emit more than a non-resource based economy. Last time the Saudi's demanded compensation for reduced energy use - they didn't get it, but at least they saw the bigger picture. Unlike the Canadian negotiators who were focused squarely on out Gore-ing Al Gore.