The wild wild Ottawa West Nepean

The Ottawa citizen is finally reporting what I have known for months - during the next federal election, whenver that will be, former MPP, Regional Chair and Ottawa Mayor Bob Chiarelli will be running as the federal Liberal candidate in Ottawa West Nepean.

A safe Liberal seat since the Ottawa map had been redrawn, the riding is currently represented by the Minister of the Environment and partisan attack dawg John Baird. He took over the seat from retiring grit stalward Marelene Caterall and defeated local nobody Lee Farnsworth in 2006 with 43 percent of the vote - not very much when everything is considered.

Yes - John Baird's star power has exploded since then - you can't open a news paper without seeing his grinning mug.

Yes - Bob Chiarelli was humilated in the last mayoral race - barely getting 15 percent of the vote.

and YES - the two have been long adversaries. Whatever the result, it is going to be a dirty, long and tight battle (which I honestly believe Baird will still win.) But wait...

1) Baird doesn't actually live in the riding. He still lives in Nepean Carleton, the riding he held provincially when he was at Queen's Park. Guess who holds O-W-N Provincially (Oh, the irony). Guess who held it in the early 1990s before redistribution? Bingo Bob, or course.

2) Sure, Chiarelli only won 15% of the mayoral vote. But - if you look at the "poll by poll" he got almost all of those votes in - you guessed it - Ottawa West Nepean.

3) Chiarelli has NOTHING better to do for the foreseable future but rekindle his roots in the riding he held provincially, where his law firm is still located, where his cousin is the municipal councillor, and where a whole lot of public servants currently live - public servants who just lived through a year of John Baird as Treasury Board President. The FAA was passed, but as it was debated and rolled out, Mr. Baird a) passed on the ATI elements he campaigned on which were very popular in the public servants b) was part of a cabinet that changed the way that most departments operated, thereby frustrating a lot of life long civil servants and c) provided a paltry amount to protect whistleblowers.

4) Ottawa South MP and MPP McGuinty and McGuinty have their campaigns run by the shrewdest political mind found in a 6'7 gorilla of a body known as Brendan McGuinty. Guess who ran Chiarelli's ship up until the last election. Guess who is dying to wade into this one knowing that Ottawa South is as safe as it gets?

5) National Polls don't mean alot - but in this case, it is pretty telling. The Tories and Liberals are within the margion of error. In Ontario, the Liberals are a few points up. In urban areas, that lead increases. In Ottawa West Nepean, there is a marked difference between support for the Conservatives, and support for their M.P. and luckily, it is in Mr. Bairds favour, but his party's support is lower than the total percentage of the vote he received. A couple of months with the worst file in Government with the correct, though least popular and untenable, position might change that. And, this time he isn't running against Dr. McLellan/Ms. Hyde-Farnsworth.

6) Finally - Ottawa voters are PISSED at Baird for interfering in the last Municipal election. Poll after poll shows residents view inserting himself into the debate as partisan meddling. I am sure Mr. Chiarelli will remind the voters of that fact more than once. He will also defend his O-train record and point out that all the work he put into a failing public transit system evaporated, and the city got nothing in return for the billion it spent - all as a result of Mr. Baird's meddling. Good for Ottawa? Not so much.

So, what does this all mean? The money and support that paid for the last campaign in Ottawa West Nepean is still comming from Nepean Carleton, if you catch my drift. The current MP in Nepean Carleton is not exactly what I would call a vital part of the Tory team. If John Baird lost (which is not outside the realm of possibility) it would send a crushing blow to a team that is already lacking in talent, nationally and in Ontario. Considering that the only actual legislation that the government has passed thus far is C-2, having the FAA steward defeated by the people who are forced to implement it will resonate poorly across the country.

Guess who actually lives in Ottawa West Nepean? Allan Cutler.

I would NOT be surprised to see, to put it politely, a redistribution of the current Ottawa Candidates - With Peter Pepper moving to Carleton-Mississipi Mills to take over for the retiring Gordon O'Connor, Baird moving back to his actual riding, and Cutler running again as a public service hero, knowing that he would likely lose to Chiarelli. You get all the benefits of the sponsorship scandal and none of the problems listed above.

The Tories know that they are cooked in Ottawa Orleans because the curent MP (C - Penguin) is totally useless and proves he is an idiot every time he speaks. They are also in trouble for completely different reasons in Prescott Glengary Rusell because of the rumoured return of Diamond Don (L - the Return of the King). That kind of momentum will not help their chances in Ottawa West - so cutting their losses by moving the pieces around and turning their attention to semi-urban ridings they could win east of Toronto to make up the difference would save resources and man-power. Resources that would otherwise have to be devoted to securing Baird's own re-election in a race that is tighter than it has to be. Is it a retreat to fight another day? Yes, but the PMO has to soon realize that its own arrogance is creating a lot of fights it doesn't need to fight to be successful.

John Baird running in Ottawa West Nepean against Chiarelli forces the Tories to keep their most valuable Ontario "chess piece" in the riding to make sure they win it. Like any game of chess, you want that particular piece to have free reign over the entire board, not protecting her own territory. And the answer to the question you are asking yourself is "Yes, it was intended."