Objectivist forecasting

Based on current polls, I am not convinced the government even wants this budget to pass. Wouldn’t that be a hoot if all three opposition parties voted for it in order for it to pass?

When I make money, I am limited to spending that which I earn. Government can just “project” how much it earns, and spend it accordingly. I suppose I could do the same, but unlike me, the government doesn’t pay interest on its deficit, just its debt. I don’t have the luxury of having those two things hived off from one another. My debt to GDP ratio is WAY higher than government’s, so maybe I should be proud.

It is my opinion that any forecasting beyond 2007 is an academic exercise at best. For example, this budget was drafted during the period of the 86 cent dollar. Well, we now have a 91 cent dollar. Most of the assumptions upon which it is based are no longer relevant. That nickel has saved the Ottawa Senators over 3 million dollars already.

Or someone could fly a plane into a building and change the economic playing field entirely.

That said, I spent a few hours locked up with 200 of my closest friends in industry reviewing the most recent federal budget. I read the speech, and watched the news and thought to myself – wow, the speech and coverage actually had little to do with what was actually in the document. Again, my frustration with the media continues. For example- the media reports 20 billion dollars in tax cuts. That is like me saying I will make a million dollars by the year 2045 and proclaiming myself a millionaire.

But what about the politics? The Liberals will probably just show up and vote against. They will wine about the KKK (Killing Kyoto and Kelowna) but ultimately, a lot of the members of their surviving caucus would probably vote for the budget if they were allowed to.

The NDP hates it because it guts a lot of programs. My reaction – who cares? Of all the political parties that have lost their relevancy, the NDP are it- they are just clamoring for attention as the Liberals turn left to oppose the government. And by Liberals I mean the leadership candidates.

The Bloq says they will support it because…well, just because. They like the idea of renewed fiscal federalism, but they don’t trust Charest to do a good job. I think they just don’t want to go to the polls, when they are four points behind the government in their own province.

What is most interesting, however, is how little any budget actually affects Canadians. That is the beauty of incremental change- small differences that adjust habits over time. Greenspon knew this better than most- and as an objectivist thinker, he knew that policy was not the vessel for achieving social change. Money was. This budget provides some incentive for Canadians to not buy anything until July. Great.